[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"site-config":3,"event:ufc-335-tbd-vs-tbd":18},{"site_name":4,"site_title":5,"site_tagline":6,"site_logo_url":7,"allow_register":8,"default_theme":9,"weekly_highlight":7,"weekly_highlight_en":7,"locales":10,"official":13,"disclaimer_zh":14,"disclaimer_en":15,"legal_operator_name":16,"legal_contact_email":7,"icp_license":17,"wechat_web_login_enabled":13,"wechat_miniapp_login_enabled":8},"UFC.ooo","UFC拳迷圈｜UFC 中文赛事、选手、数据与社区","小程序：MMA格斗志",null,true,"light",[11,12],"zh","en",false,"独立格斗资讯与粉丝社区，非 UFC 官方网站。","Independent combat-sports news and fan community. Not affiliated with UFC.","广州量维智能安全技术有限公司","粤ICP备2026129121号",{"event":19,"fight_card":42,"venue":7,"location_raw":48,"viewing":49,"fights":50,"followed":13,"reminder_enabled":13},{"id":20,"slug":21,"name":22,"name_zh":23,"date_utc":24,"live_start_at":24,"timezone":25,"status":26,"city":27,"location_zh":28,"poster":29,"main_a_avatar":31,"main_b_avatar":35,"main_a_name_en":34,"main_a_name_zh":33,"main_b_name_en":38,"main_b_name_zh":37,"data_quality":39,"target":40},1581,"ufc-335-tbd-vs-tbd","UFC 335: Charles Oliveira VS Diego Lopes","UFC 335：查尔斯·奥利维拉 VS 迭戈·洛佩斯","2026-12-13T02:00:00Z","UTC","upcoming","T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas","美国内华达州拉斯维加斯T-Mobile竞技场",{"url":30,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":23,"alt_en":22},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fd5\u002Fd5d8ff4c31374554ec909c2054bb16b4d0d0dbea97969b3458c5594142e5e40f.jpg",{"url":32,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":33,"alt_en":34},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fc2\u002Fc24de5a1557364462864613352b29c31126b682b77c14e1cb8263ba8f403021c.jpg","查尔斯·奥利维拉","Charles Oliveira",{"url":36,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":37,"alt_en":38},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fa9\u002Fa9dba9505ace051bf01111ba74eb03990286061d7a6942334742be68bdb90843.jpg","迭戈·洛佩斯","Diego Lopes","complete",{"kind":41,"ref":21,"fight_id":7},"event",{"url":43,"thumb_url":7,"width":44,"height":45,"alt_zh":46,"alt_en":47},"https:\u002F\u002Fapi.ufcfans.cn\u002Fapi\u002Fv2\u002Fevents\u002F1581\u002Ffight-card.png?v=7c73b11d82e81c9c4740930c1fcfce29f629311cf17443878e0dd256b517102f",1200,1304,"UFC 335：查尔斯·奥利维拉 VS 迭戈·洛佩斯 全阵容战卡","UFC 335: Charles Oliveira VS Diego Lopes full fight card","T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas , NV United States",{},[51,128,195,258,312],{"id":52,"bout_order":53,"weight_class":54,"weight_class_zh":55,"is_main_event":8,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":56,"fighter_b":72,"fighter_a_name":34,"fighter_b_name":38,"result":80,"bout_status":81,"official_fight_id":82,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":83,"odds_b":84,"favor_a_pct":85,"favor_b_pct":86,"market_odds":87,"prediction":93,"predictions":106,"pick_distribution":126,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":127},62782,0,"Lightweight","轻量级",{"id":57,"slug":58,"name_en":34,"name_zh":33,"nickname":59,"weight_class":54,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":60,"country":61,"country_zh":62,"country_code":63,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":65,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":69,"target":70},2809,"charles-oliveira","Do Bronxs","37-11-0","Brazil","巴西","BR","active",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":67,"fresh":8},"Active","2026-11-04T05:07:02.133697Z","verified",{"url":32,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":33,"alt_en":34},{"kind":71,"ref":58,"fight_id":7},"fighter",{"id":73,"slug":74,"name_en":38,"name_zh":37,"nickname":7,"weight_class":54,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":75,"country":61,"country_zh":62,"country_code":63,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":76,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":78,"target":79},2206,"diego-lopes","28-8-0",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":77,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:08:42.709307Z",{"url":36,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":37,"alt_en":38},{"kind":71,"ref":74,"fight_id":7},"pending","scheduled","13207","-150","+125",57.4,42.6,{"american_a":83,"american_b":84,"raw_implied_a_pct":88,"raw_implied_b_pct":89,"bookmaker_margin_pct":90,"market_a_pct":85,"market_b_pct":86,"source":91,"updated_at":92},60,44.4,4.4,"ufc.com","2026-11-04T12:11:07.193357Z",{"id":94,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":98,"fighter_b_win_pct":99,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":101,"analysis_en":102,"data_at":103,"prompt_version":104,"method_dist":105,"version":104,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},417,"GPT","https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fbranding\u002Fai-models\u002Fopenai.svg","fighter_a",57,43,0.58,"倾向奥利维拉：他在最近8场UFC比赛中5胜，且拥有更高的有效打击命中率、抱摔频率和降服威胁，22次生涯降服胜也构成显著地面优势。洛佩斯更年轻，击倒威胁和打击输出较强，近8场6胜；但其有效打击承受率更高，且给定排名属于羽量级。洛佩斯抱摔成功数据缺失，双方后台技能评分均缺失，因此判断把握有限。","Oliveira gets a narrow edge: he is 5-3 in his latest eight UFC bouts and has higher striking accuracy, takedown volume, and submission threat, backed by 22 career submission wins. Lopes is younger, has stronger knockdown output, and went 6-2 in his last eight, but absorbs strikes at a higher rate; his supplied ranking is also at featherweight. Lopes’s takedown accuracy is unavailable and neither fighter has manual skill scores, limiting confidence.","2026-10-08T11:43:03.794532Z","v20261007-input-v3",{},[107,108,118],{"id":94,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":98,"fighter_b_win_pct":99,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":101,"analysis_en":102,"data_at":103,"prompt_version":104},{"id":109,"model_name":110,"model_icon_url":111,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":112,"fighter_b_win_pct":113,"confidence":114,"analysis_zh":115,"analysis_en":116,"data_at":117,"prompt_version":104},416,"Claude","https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fbranding\u002Fai-models\u002Fclaude.svg",58,42,0.57,"奥利维拉在轻量级排名第3，近期击败霍洛威与加姆罗特。近8场的3场败绩均来自顶级对手：托普里亚、察鲁基扬（分歧判定）与马哈切夫。他的打击命中率为55.6%（分组百分位91.2），场均承受打击3.05次\u002F分钟，明显低于洛佩斯的4.65次\u002F分钟。降服威胁为2.59次\u002F15分钟，分组百分位94.9，生涯22场降服胜。他的地面统治力和本级别对手强度均占优，臂展也更长（188对184.2厘米）。洛佩斯的优势在于年轻5岁、击倒威胁更高（0.71对0.41）、防摔率更高（69%对55%），且同样具备降服能力（12场降服胜）。他近8场6胜，两败均为对沃尔卡诺夫斯基的冠军战。但他的官方排名属于羽量级，本场升级作战，在轻量级缺乏可验证样本。他的打击防守偏弱，百分位仅25.0。奥利维拉36岁且防守百分位偏低，存在被击倒风险。洛佩斯缺失抱摔成功率与摔跤落地总数，且双方均无人工技能评分，因此判断把握有限，小幅看好奥利维拉。","Oliveira is ranked #3 at lightweight, with recent wins over Holloway and Gamrot. All three losses in his last eight came against elite opposition: Topuria, Tsarukyan (split decision) and Makhachev. He lands at 55.6% accuracy (91.2 percentile) and absorbs 3.05 strikes\u002Fmin, far fewer than Lopes's 4.65. His submission threat of 2.59\u002F15 min sits in the 94.9 percentile, backed by 22 career submission wins. He holds the edge in divisional competition level and grappling, plus a longer reach (188 vs 184.2 cm). Lopes is 5 years younger, with higher knockdown threat (0.71 vs 0.41) and better takedown defense (69% vs 55%). He is also a real submission threat with 12 submission wins. He is 6-2 in his last eight, with both losses coming in title fights against Volkanovski. However, his official ranking is at featherweight, and this move up leaves no verified lightweight sample. His striking defense is also weak (25.0 percentile). Oliveira's age and low defensive percentile leave real knockout risk. Lopes's takedown accuracy and takedowns-landed totals are missing, and neither fighter has manual skill scores, so confidence is reduced. Slight edge to Oliveira.","2026-10-08T11:42:43.622503Z",{"id":119,"model_name":120,"model_icon_url":121,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":98,"fighter_b_win_pct":99,"confidence":122,"analysis_zh":123,"analysis_en":124,"data_at":125,"prompt_version":104},257,"DeepSeek","https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F70\u002F707b1d66db538a9f4cf473479682cc8acb4f934a9f0a360cf1e3eb65914eead2.jpg",0.6,"综合白名单数据，奥利维拉的优势在缠斗与降服威胁：降服威胁94.9百分位、22次降服胜、地面打击占比23%，打击命中率55.6%和打击防守49.0%也优于洛佩斯；近8场5胜3负，胜霍洛威、加姆罗特、钱德勒，负于顶级冠军\u002F挑战者。洛佩斯更年轻（31岁），站立输出3.79\u002F分钟、击倒威胁0.71\u002F15分钟、防摔69%占优，近8场6胜2负，但两负均输给沃尔卡诺夫斯基，且本场从羽量级升到轻量级，未在155磅验证。其雷达缺失抱摔成功率与抱摔成功总数，降低判断把握。预计奥利维拉通过地面压制、降服或点数控制获胜，但需警惕洛佩斯重拳。","Based on the provided facts, Oliveira's edge is grappling and submission threat: 94.9th percentile submission threat, 22 submission wins, 23% ground strikes, plus better striking accuracy 55.6% and striking defense 49.0%. His recent 5-3 includes wins over Holloway, Gamrot and Chandler, with losses to elite opponents. Lopes is younger at 31 and has higher striking volume 3.79\u002Fmin, knockdown threat 0.71\u002F15 min, and 69% takedown defense; he is 6-2 recently, but both losses came to Volkanovski and he moves up from featherweight to lightweight unproven at 155 lb. His radar is partial, missing takedown accuracy and takedowns landed, which lowers confidence. Expect Oliveira to win via grappling, submission or control while avoiding Lopes' power.","2026-10-08T11:41:15.835318Z",{"fighter_a":53,"fighter_b":53,"total":53,"fighter_a_pct":53,"fighter_b_pct":53},{"pickable":8,"locked_reason":7,"odds_updated_at":92,"source":91},{"id":129,"bout_order":130,"weight_class":131,"weight_class_zh":132,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":133,"fighter_b":145,"fighter_a_name":136,"fighter_b_name":148,"result":80,"bout_status":81,"official_fight_id":159,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":160,"odds_b":161,"favor_a_pct":162,"favor_b_pct":163,"market_odds":164,"prediction":169,"predictions":176,"pick_distribution":193,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":194},62821,1,"Heavyweight","重量级",{"id":134,"slug":135,"name_en":136,"name_zh":137,"nickname":138,"weight_class":131,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":139,"country":61,"country_zh":62,"country_code":63,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":140,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":142,"target":144},4,"alex-pereira","Alex Pereira","亚历克斯·佩雷拉","Poatan","13-4-0",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":141,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:04:43.229041Z",{"url":143,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":137,"alt_en":136},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fde\u002Fde3274839a077576d726e2b58fdc9ab65c7015dc96b08de6ced3f2723d10844f.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":135,"fight_id":7},{"id":146,"slug":147,"name_en":148,"name_zh":149,"nickname":7,"weight_class":131,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":150,"country":151,"country_zh":152,"country_code":153,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":154,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":156,"target":158},2924,"sergei-pavlovich","Sergei Pavlovich","谢尔盖·帕夫洛维奇","21-3-0","Russia","俄罗斯","RU",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":155,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:05:42.304052Z",{"url":157,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":149,"alt_en":148},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fab\u002Fabf4a245779e45d03019274ab02a115a3add966281ce3a60791b8100f75d1173.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":147,"fight_id":7},"13208","-205","+170",64.5,35.5,{"american_a":160,"american_b":161,"raw_implied_a_pct":165,"raw_implied_b_pct":166,"bookmaker_margin_pct":167,"market_a_pct":162,"market_b_pct":163,"source":91,"updated_at":168},67.2,37,4.3,"2026-11-04T12:11:07.195724Z",{"id":170,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":113,"fighter_b_win_pct":112,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":172,"analysis_en":173,"data_at":174,"prompt_version":104,"method_dist":175,"version":104,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},532,"fighter_b","帕夫洛维奇略占优：34岁、重量级排名第3，生涯21胜且16次首回合终结；击倒率1.89\u002F15分钟、臂展更长，近期三连胜。佩雷拉有效打击命中率高、近八场6胜，但38岁且最新一战被KO；其重量级经验和防守指标也增加不确定性。帕夫洛维奇缺少后台技能评分，双方抱摔成功率缺失；赛事标题、选手身份及级别信息不一致，故把握有限。","Pavlovich has a slight edge: age 34, listed heavyweight No. 3, 21 career wins with 16 first-round finishes, a 1.89 knockdown rate per 15 minutes, greater reach, and three recent wins in a row. Pereira brings superior striking accuracy and is 6-2 in his last eight, but is 38 and coming off a KO loss; his heavyweight experience and defensive metrics add uncertainty. Pavlovich lacks manual skill scores, takedown accuracy is missing for both, and the event title conflicts with the listed fighters and weight-class details, limiting confidence.","2026-11-03T04:21:00.837807Z",{},[177,178,186],{"id":170,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":113,"fighter_b_win_pct":112,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":172,"analysis_en":173,"data_at":174,"prompt_version":104},{"id":179,"model_name":110,"model_icon_url":111,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":180,"fighter_b_win_pct":181,"confidence":182,"analysis_zh":183,"analysis_en":184,"data_at":185,"prompt_version":104},531,47,53,0.4,"这是一场站立重炮对决，我略看好帕夫洛维奇。他更年轻（34岁对38岁），臂展明显更长（213.4cm对200.7cm），体重略重，并且是重量级排名第3。他每15分钟击倒1.89次，组别百分位95.6，16场KO胜利中16场在首回合完成终结。佩雷拉的打击命中率（61.4%）和输出量（5.01\u002F分钟）更好，高水平战绩也更丰富。但他最近一场重量级比赛在第二回合被加内KO，官方排名仍挂在轻重量级，重量级适应存疑。帕夫洛维奇近三战全胜，打击防守率56%对53%也略好。双方摔跤都很少，比赛大概率在站立中决出。帕夫洛维奇缺少后台技能评分，本场比赛的级别字段也缺失，因此把握偏低。","This is a stand-up power matchup, and I give Pavlovich a slight edge. He is younger (34 vs 38), has a clear reach advantage (213.4 vs 200.7 cm), weighs slightly more, and is ranked #3 at heavyweight. He lands 1.89 knockdowns per 15 minutes (95.6 percentile in the division), and his career shows 16 first-round finishes. Pereira is the more accurate striker (61.4%) with higher volume (5.01\u002Fmin) and a deeper elite résumé. However, he was KO'd by Gane in round 2 in his most recent heavyweight fight, and his official ranking is still at light heavyweight, so his heavyweight adjustment is uncertain. Pavlovich has won his last three fights and has slightly better striking defense (56% vs 53%). Both men rarely wrestle, so the fight will likely be decided on the feet. Pavlovich has no manual skill scores and the fight's weight class field is missing, so confidence is limited.","2026-11-03T04:20:50.415669Z",{"id":187,"model_name":120,"model_icon_url":121,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":88,"fighter_b_win_pct":188,"confidence":189,"analysis_zh":190,"analysis_en":191,"data_at":192,"prompt_version":104},530,40,0.62,"佩雷拉在有效打击命中率（61.4%）、打击量（5.01\u002F分钟）、打击评分（96）和战斗智商（85）上明显占优，防摔率80%也能限制帕夫洛维奇不多的抱摔。帕夫洛维奇拥有更高击倒威胁（95.6百分位、1.89次\u002F15分钟）、更长臂展（213.4cm）和16次首回合终结，早期KO路径真实存在。佩雷拉38岁且近期被盖恩KO，抗击打与防守存在风险；帕夫洛维奇缺少后台技能评分，抱摔成功率缺失，因此把握度不宜过高。综合判断佩雷拉若度过前两回合，凭精度、节奏和拳商更可能取胜。","Pereira has clear edges in striking accuracy (61.4%), volume (5.01\u002Fmin), striking score (96) and fight IQ (85), plus 80% takedown defense to limit Pavlovich's few takedown attempts. Pavlovich carries real early danger with a 95.6 knockdown-threat percentile, 1.89 knockdowns\u002F15 min, 213.4 cm reach and 16 first-round finishes. Pereira is 38 and was recently KO'd by Gane, so his durability\u002Fdefense is a concern. Pavlovich lacks manual skill scores and takedown accuracy is missing, lowering confidence. If Pereira survives the first two rounds, his precision, pace and IQ should make him the more likely winner.","2026-11-03T04:20:37.177509Z",{"fighter_a":53,"fighter_b":53,"total":53,"fighter_a_pct":53,"fighter_b_pct":53},{"pickable":8,"locked_reason":7,"odds_updated_at":168,"source":91},{"id":196,"bout_order":197,"weight_class":198,"weight_class_zh":199,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":200,"fighter_b":215,"fighter_a_name":203,"fighter_b_name":218,"result":80,"bout_status":81,"official_fight_id":230,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":231,"predictions":239,"pick_distribution":255,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":256},62788,2,"Flyweight","蝇量级",{"id":201,"slug":202,"name_en":203,"name_zh":204,"nickname":205,"weight_class":198,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":206,"country":207,"country_zh":208,"country_code":209,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":210,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":212,"target":214},2599,"brandon-moreno","Brandon Moreno","布兰登·莫雷诺","The Assassin Baby","24-10-2","Mexico","墨西哥","MX",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":211,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:09:03.114232Z",{"url":213,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":204,"alt_en":203},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F68\u002F688b6541e817189fdcdad467a58356b27216ca077ef0a01abb1842aee7fa9f94.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":202,"fight_id":7},{"id":216,"slug":217,"name_en":218,"name_zh":219,"nickname":220,"weight_class":198,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":221,"country":222,"country_zh":223,"country_code":224,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":225,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":227,"target":229},1822,"charles-johnson","Charles Johnson","查尔斯·约翰逊","InnerG","20-9-0","United States","美国","US",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":226,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:05:46.653027Z",{"url":228,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":219,"alt_en":218},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F8b\u002F8b7db996e8a3048accbc4220bcdd83732df6811bad1277e931143cc2f2a75c49.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":217,"fight_id":7},"13219",{"id":232,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":233,"fighter_b_win_pct":234,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":235,"analysis_en":236,"data_at":237,"prompt_version":104,"method_dist":238,"version":104,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},427,45,55,"约翰逊近8场UFC为5胜3负，莫雷诺为4胜4负；约翰逊有效打击量、命中率和击倒威胁更高，身高及腿长也占优。莫雷诺职业胜场与降服能力突出，且排名第8、防守数据更好，是重要反向因素。约翰逊缺少官方排名、抱摔成功率及站姿数据，双方均无有效后台技能评分，因此判断把握有限。","Johnson is 5-3 across his last eight UFC bouts, compared with Moreno’s 4-4, and has the edge in significant-strike volume, accuracy, knockdown threat, height, and leg reach. Moreno counters with more career wins, a strong submission record, an official No. 8 ranking, and better striking defense. Confidence is limited because Johnson’s ranking, takedown accuracy, and stance are unavailable, and neither fighter has valid manual skill scores.","2026-10-10T10:20:50.860591Z",{},[240,241,247],{"id":232,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":233,"fighter_b_win_pct":234,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":235,"analysis_en":236,"data_at":237,"prompt_version":104},{"id":242,"model_name":110,"model_icon_url":111,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":234,"fighter_b_win_pct":233,"confidence":243,"analysis_zh":244,"analysis_en":245,"data_at":246,"prompt_version":104},426,0.52,"莫雷诺小幅占优。他有官方排名第8（快照为2026-10，已偏旧），年龄32岁，比约翰逊小3岁。打击防守60%对56%，每分钟被击中3.69对3.93，防守端更好。生涯11场降服胜，五回合经验丰富，综合面更全。约翰逊的打击量（4.60对3.86\u002F分钟）、命中率（49.5%对44%）和击倒威胁（0.30对0.17\u002F15分钟）更高，且曾胜过击败莫雷诺的卡瓦纳。但他35岁、无排名，近期有KO败和降服败。莫雷诺近8场仅4-4，最近一战被平良达郎KO，状态和抗击打存疑。莫雷诺抱摔命中率仅15%，约翰逊缺少抱摔命中率数据。统计数据截至2026年，与比赛间隔较长，因此把握有限。","Slight edge to Moreno. He holds an official #8 ranking (snapshot from 2026-10, now dated) and is 32, three years younger than Johnson. Defensively he is better: 60% vs 56% striking defense and 3.69 vs 3.93 strikes absorbed per minute. He also brings 11 submission wins and extensive five-round experience, making him the more complete fighter. Johnson leads in volume (4.60 vs 3.86\u002Fmin), accuracy (49.5% vs 44%) and knockdown threat (0.30 vs 0.17 per 15 min). He also beat Kavanagh, who defeated Moreno. However, he is 35, unranked, and has recent KO and submission losses. Moreno is only 4-4 over his last eight and was KO'd by Taira in his latest fight, raising concerns about form and durability. Moreno's takedown accuracy is just 15%, and Johnson's takedown accuracy is missing. The stats date from 2026, well before this fight, so confidence is limited.","2026-10-10T10:20:46.361867Z",{"id":248,"model_name":120,"model_icon_url":121,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":249,"fighter_b_win_pct":250,"confidence":251,"analysis_zh":252,"analysis_en":253,"data_at":254,"prompt_version":104},425,62,38,0.66,"莫雷诺官方排名第8，生涯与冠军赛经验更足；其打击防守率60%、防守雷达73.8，抱摔量1.39\u002F15，且有11次降服胜利，地面与混合进攻威胁高于约翰逊。近期4胜4负，但对手层级较高。约翰逊打击量4.6、命中率49.5%、击倒威胁0.3，站立输出有优势，近期5胜3负；但他35岁、无官方排名，抱摔成功率缺失，67%防摔并非无解。莫雷诺若以抱摔和降服混合压制，并避免站立换拳，判定或降服胜面更大。数据缺口降低把握。","Moreno is ranked No. 8 with stronger high-level and title-fight experience. His 60% striking defense, 73.8 striking-defense percentile, 1.39 takedowns\u002F15 min and 11 career submission wins give him a grappling\u002Fcontrol edge. Johnson has better striking volume (4.6\u002Fmin), accuracy (49.5%) and knockdown threat (0.3), plus recent 5-3 form, but he is 35, unranked, and his takedown accuracy is missing; his 67% takedown defense can be tested. Moreno can mix takedowns and submissions while avoiding extended firefights. Data gaps lower confidence.","2026-10-10T10:20:21.211357Z",{"fighter_a":53,"fighter_b":53,"total":53,"fighter_a_pct":53,"fighter_b_pct":53},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":257,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":91},"暂缺完整双边市场数据",{"id":259,"bout_order":260,"weight_class":261,"weight_class_zh":262,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":263,"fighter_b":273,"fighter_a_name":266,"fighter_b_name":276,"result":80,"bout_status":81,"official_fight_id":288,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":7,"odds_b":7,"favor_a_pct":7,"favor_b_pct":7,"market_odds":7,"prediction":289,"predictions":296,"pick_distribution":310,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":311},62792,3,"Light Heavyweight","轻重量级",{"id":264,"slug":265,"name_en":266,"name_zh":7,"nickname":7,"weight_class":261,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":267,"country":222,"country_zh":223,"country_code":224,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":268,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":270,"target":272},4592,"quentin-pasley","Quentin Pasley","1-0-0",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":269,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T04:44:32.370518Z",{"url":271,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":7,"alt_en":266},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002Fc6\u002Fc6b96ba6e49daa4d35ace894f06b23769f828039340c1d8ce8c63368fe727923.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":265,"fight_id":7},{"id":274,"slug":275,"name_en":276,"name_zh":277,"nickname":278,"weight_class":261,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":279,"country":280,"country_zh":281,"country_code":282,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":283,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":285,"target":287},3778,"junior-tafa","Junior Tafa","朱尼尔·塔法","The Juggernaut","7-6-0","Australia","澳大利亚","AU",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":284,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:06:54.401204Z",{"url":286,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":277,"alt_en":276},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F1f\u002F1fef4ba633273e965b4fe3c6c4218590634d5113d11aac93cc119234081540d7.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":275,"fight_id":7},"13223",{"id":290,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":99,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":291,"analysis_zh":292,"analysis_en":293,"data_at":294,"prompt_version":104,"method_dist":295,"version":104,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},445,0.45,"塔法的职业赛样本更大（7胜6负），近8场有3胜，且7场职业胜利均为KO\u002FTKO，具备明确的终结威胁。帕斯利身高与臂展略占优，数据中有效打击量和命中率较高，但职业记录仅1胜，且无近期 UFC 赛果、个人 UFC 事实或已验证胜利方式分布；现有打击总量也很少，难以判断稳定性。塔法近期战绩起伏且防摔数据逊色，因此优势有限、判断把握偏低。","Tafa has the larger career sample (7-6), went 3-5 across his last eight listed UFC bouts, and all seven career wins came by KO\u002FTKO, giving him a documented finishing threat. Pasley has slight height and reach advantages and strong listed striking rate and accuracy, but has only one career win, no recent UFC results or profile facts, and no verified win-method sample; his small strike totals make consistency hard to assess. Tafa’s recent form is uneven, so the edge is modest and confidence is limited.","2026-10-14T22:24:54.234472Z",{},[297,298,304],{"id":290,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":99,"fighter_b_win_pct":98,"confidence":291,"analysis_zh":292,"analysis_en":293,"data_at":294,"prompt_version":104},{"id":299,"model_name":110,"model_icon_url":111,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":233,"fighter_b_win_pct":234,"confidence":300,"analysis_zh":301,"analysis_en":302,"data_at":303,"prompt_version":104},444,0.33,"塔法（B）职业战绩7-6，7胜全部为KO\u002FTKO，其中5场首回合终结，击倒威胁为0.53次\u002F15分钟（同级第76.6百分位），打击防守52%，经验明显更丰富。但他近8场UFC仅3胜5负，其中3场被降服、2场被KO，抗击打能力和地面防守都是明显短板。帕斯利（A）24岁，臂展198cm，比对手长约7.6cm。他的样本只有一场约4分41秒的比赛：有效打击5.98次\u002F分钟、命中率62.2%，但打击防守仅39%（同级第15.7百分位）。数据中他有1次抱摔尝试，抱摔量为3.2次\u002F15分钟，这一点可能正好针对塔法的地面弱点。另外，帕斯利的1-0战绩没有记录胜利方式，近期比赛列表为空，数据存在矛盾且样本极小，可靠性很低。综合来看，塔法的终结力加上对手较差的打击防守，让他略占优势；但帕斯利若能把比赛带到地面，有机会取胜。由于数据缺失严重，本判断把握偏低。","Tafa (B) is 7-6, with all 7 wins by KO\u002FTKO and 5 of them in round one. His knockdown rate of 0.53 per 15 minutes sits in the 76.6th percentile of the division, his striking defense is 52%, and he has far more experience. However, he is 3-5 in his last 8 UFC fights, with 3 submission losses and 2 KO losses, so both his durability and his ground defense are clear weaknesses. Pasley (A) is 24 and has a 198cm reach, about 7.6cm longer than his opponent. His data comes from a single fight of roughly 4:41. In it he landed 5.98 significant strikes per minute at 62.2% accuracy, but his striking defense was only 39% (15.7th percentile). The data shows 1 takedown attempt and a takedown rate of 3.2 per 15 minutes, which could target Tafa's grappling weakness. His 1-0 record lists no win method and his recent fights list is empty, so the data is contradictory and the sample is tiny. Overall, Tafa's finishing power against Pasley's porous striking defense gives him a slight edge. Pasley has a real path to victory if he can take the fight to the ground. Confidence is low because of the missing and inconsistent data.","2026-10-14T22:24:43.166810Z",{"id":305,"model_name":120,"model_icon_url":121,"predicted_winner":171,"fighter_a_win_pct":250,"fighter_b_win_pct":249,"confidence":306,"analysis_zh":307,"analysis_en":308,"data_at":309,"prompt_version":104},443,0.55,"数据存在明显不对称：A（帕斯利）仅1-0-0，UFC样本几乎为零，recent_fights为空，ufc_profile_facts缺失，雷达与累计数据仅基于单场（28次有效打击、1次抱摔尝试），样本量过小，判断把握必须下调。其亮点是打击命中率62.2%、抱摔量3.2\u002F15分钟、防摔100%，但打击防守仅39%（分区百分位15.7），且无击倒\u002F降服威胁记录。B（塔法）7-6-0，7胜全部KO\u002FTKO，5次首回合终结，近8场3胜5负，击倒威胁百分位76.6，打击防守52%优于A，防摔73%。A的抱摔威胁是B的主要风险点，但A缺乏终结手段与实战检验；B的站立重击与首回合终结能力更可能决定比赛。综合样本可靠性与威胁维度，判B胜，但因A数据样本极小、B近期稳定性差，把握中等偏低。","Data is highly asymmetric. Fighter A (Pasley) is 1-0-0 with essentially no UFC sample: empty recent_fights, no profile facts, and radar\u002Fcumulative stats derived from a single fight (28 sig strikes, 1 takedown attempt), so confidence must be reduced. His positives are 62.2% striking accuracy, 3.2 takedowns\u002F15min and 100% takedown defense, but striking defense is only 39% (15.7th percentile) and he shows no KO or submission threat. Fighter B (Tafa) is 7-6-0 with all 7 wins by KO\u002FTKO, 5 first-round finishes, 3-5 in his last 8, a 76.6th-percentile knockdown threat, better striking defense (52%) and 73% takedown defense. A's wrestling is the main risk for B, but A lacks proven finishing ability and real UFC-level testing, while B's standing power and early-finish tendency are the clearest decisive factors. Lean B, with moderate-low confidence given A's tiny sample and B's recent inconsistency.","2026-10-14T22:24:23.349678Z",{"fighter_a":53,"fighter_b":53,"total":53,"fighter_a_pct":53,"fighter_b_pct":53},{"pickable":13,"locked_reason":257,"odds_updated_at":7,"source":91},{"id":313,"bout_order":134,"weight_class":314,"weight_class_zh":315,"is_main_event":13,"is_title_fight":13,"fighter_a":316,"fighter_b":328,"fighter_a_name":319,"fighter_b_name":331,"result":80,"bout_status":81,"official_fight_id":339,"result_source":7,"result_updated_at":7,"method":7,"method_zh":7,"end_round":7,"end_time":7,"odds_a":340,"odds_b":341,"favor_a_pct":342,"favor_b_pct":343,"market_odds":344,"prediction":348,"predictions":354,"pick_distribution":366,"my_pick":7,"my_pick_detail":7,"prediction_market":367},62784,"Middleweight","中量级",{"id":317,"slug":318,"name_en":319,"name_zh":320,"nickname":321,"weight_class":314,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":322,"country":222,"country_zh":223,"country_code":224,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":323,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":325,"target":327},3076,"joe-pyfer","Joe Pyfer","乔·皮弗","Bodybagz","16-3-0",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":324,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:07:31.803638Z",{"url":326,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":320,"alt_en":319},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F28\u002F284afcaf3b126000d1374ed94bac08858a97855598f38cf6fc9e7c4825fff41f.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":318,"fight_id":7},{"id":329,"slug":330,"name_en":331,"name_zh":332,"nickname":7,"weight_class":314,"weight_class_zh":7,"record":333,"country":222,"country_zh":223,"country_code":224,"is_chinese":13,"status":64,"ufc_profile_status":334,"is_champion":13,"recently_competed":13,"avatar_status":68,"profile_sync_status":39,"avatar":336,"target":338},2726,"bo-nickal","Bo Nickal","博·尼卡尔","9-1-0",{"value":64,"raw":66,"observed_at":335,"fresh":8},"2026-11-04T05:08:15.486873Z",{"url":337,"thumb_url":7,"width":7,"height":7,"alt_zh":332,"alt_en":331},"https:\u002F\u002Fmedia.ufcfans.cn\u002Fobjects\u002F71\u002F71f0eede33691c8dea7e2cbb4e112df26b89d1f75267a28e6f30338f59e13c64.jpg",{"kind":71,"ref":330,"fight_id":7},"13209","-198","+164",63.7,36.3,{"american_a":340,"american_b":341,"raw_implied_a_pct":345,"raw_implied_b_pct":346,"bookmaker_margin_pct":167,"market_a_pct":342,"market_b_pct":343,"source":91,"updated_at":347},66.4,37.9,"2026-11-04T12:11:07.202543Z",{"id":349,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":98,"fighter_b_win_pct":99,"confidence":114,"analysis_zh":350,"analysis_en":351,"data_at":352,"prompt_version":104,"method_dist":353,"version":104,"sample_size":7,"uncertainty":7},421,"皮弗的UFC近期记录为7胜1负，排名第6，优于尼卡尔的6胜1负、排名第14；其击倒威胁更高，职业KO胜利占比也突出。尼卡尔有效打击命中率、防守和降服威胁更好，但抱摔成功率仅5.3%，削弱其主要摔跤优势。皮弗的抱摔成功率缺失，尼卡尔样本较少，且双方后台技能评分均缺失，因此判断把握有限。","Pyfer has the stronger recent UFC record (7-1) and a higher ranking (#6 vs. #14), alongside greater knockdown threat and a strong KO record. Nickal has better striking accuracy, defense, and submission threat, but his listed takedown accuracy is only 5.3%, limiting confidence in his main wrestling route. Pyfer’s takedown accuracy and both fighters’ manual skill scores are missing, and Nickal’s UFC sample is smaller, so confidence is limited.","2026-10-08T11:45:18.097774Z",{},[355,356,361],{"id":349,"model_name":95,"model_icon_url":96,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":98,"fighter_b_win_pct":99,"confidence":114,"analysis_zh":350,"analysis_en":351,"data_at":352,"prompt_version":104},{"id":357,"model_name":110,"model_icon_url":111,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":88,"fighter_b_win_pct":188,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":358,"analysis_en":359,"data_at":360,"prompt_version":104},420,"皮弗战绩16-3，官方排名第6，高于尼卡尔的第14。近8场UFC战绩7胜1负，近期连胜阿德萨尼亚、马戈梅多夫和加斯特卢姆，对手层级明显更高。皮弗击倒威胁很强（1.09次\u002F15分钟，分位93.1），10场KO胜利，打击输出量也略高。尼卡尔战绩9-1，打击命中率61.8%、打击防守60%、每分钟仅吸收1.93次有效打击，降服威胁2.27次\u002F15分钟，数据效率出色。但他生涯较短、对手层级偏低，唯一一场负于高排名对手德里德尔，且是被KO。他的抱摔成功率仅5.3%（19次尝试成功1次），与其摔跤手定位不符，可能存在样本或统计口径问题，这一点降低了判断把握。皮弗防摔率63%属中等，若尼卡尔能有效贴身控制，比赛走势会改变。综合对手质量和终结能力，判皮弗小幅占优。另外，皮弗缺失抱摔成功率数据，双方均无技能评分，因此信心为中等。","Pyfer (16-3, ranked #6) holds a clear edge in quality of opposition. He is 7-1 in his last eight UFC bouts and recently beat Adesanya, Magomedov and Gastelum. His knockdown threat is elite (1.09 per 15 min, 93rd percentile), he has 10 KO wins, and his output is slightly higher. Nickal (9-1, #14) posts excellent efficiency: 61.8% striking accuracy, 60% striking defense, only 1.93 strikes absorbed per minute, and 2.27 submission attempts per 15 min. However, his resume is thinner, and his only loss was a KO against a high-ranked opponent, de Ridder. His listed takedown accuracy of 5.3% (1 of 19) is inconsistent with his wrestler profile and may reflect a sample or data issue, which lowers certainty. Pyfer's 63% takedown defense is only moderate, so grappling control could swing the fight. Pyfer's takedown accuracy is missing and neither fighter has skill scores, so confidence is moderate. Slight edge to Pyfer on experience and finishing power.","2026-10-08T11:44:51.646826Z",{"id":362,"model_name":120,"model_icon_url":121,"predicted_winner":97,"fighter_a_win_pct":112,"fighter_b_win_pct":113,"confidence":100,"analysis_zh":363,"analysis_en":364,"data_at":365,"prompt_version":104},259,"综合白名单事实，倾向乔·皮弗。皮弗官方排名第6高于尼卡尔第14，近8场7胜1负，近期KO阿迪萨亚，生涯10次KO、4次降服，击倒威胁1.09\u002F15分钟且处该级别93.1百分位，站立打击量3.52\u002F分钟，具备一击终结能力。尼卡尔虽打击命中率61.8%、防守60%、防摔100%、降服威胁2.27\u002F15分钟，但抱摔成功率仅5.3%（19次仅成功1次），近期又被德·里德尔KO，面对皮弗的KO威胁风险偏高。皮弗防摔63.0、被有效打击3.22\u002F分钟是隐忧，若被拖入地面会削弱优势，故不给出高把握。数据中皮弗抱摔成功率缺失、双方manual_skill_scores为空，已降低置信度。独立研判：皮弗58%，尼卡尔42%。","Lean Joe Pyfer. He is ranked No.6 vs Nickal No.14, 7-1 in last 8, and recently KO'd Adesanya. He has 10 KO wins and 1.09 knockdowns\u002F15 min (93.1 percentile). Nickal has better accuracy (61.8%), defense (60%), 100% TD defense and high sub threat (2.27\u002F15 min), but TD accuracy is only 5.3% (1\u002F19) and he was recently KO'd by de Ridder. Pyfer's 63% TD defense and 3.22 absorbed strikes\u002Fmin are risks; missing Pyfer TD accuracy lowers confidence. Pick: Pyfer 58%, Nickal 42%.","2026-10-08T11:44:18.936455Z",{"fighter_a":53,"fighter_b":53,"total":53,"fighter_a_pct":53,"fighter_b_pct":53},{"pickable":8,"locked_reason":7,"odds_updated_at":347,"source":91}]